Another weekend, another loaded set of college football games.
As teams continue to push for the College Football Playoffs, there are plenty of games that can serve as turning points for respective teams' seasons. For Texas A&M and LSU, the winner of this game can get a significant leg up on making the 12-team invitational this winter. Which team can move that much closer to competing for a National Championship?
I have you covered with a deep dive into that game as well as every Top 25 game on the Week 9 slate.
College Football Betting Analysis for Week 9Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Betting NotesThe Orange have been frisky as an underdog this season, winning both games outright, and are being undervalued against a Pitt defense that is outside the top in EPA/Pass this season. However, Pitt also has an advantageous matchup in this game against a similarly poor Syracuse defenseThe market has moved swiftly on the total in this one, pushing it up to 62 from the opener of 60.5. Both offenses should be able to move the ball nicely in this one with plenty of starpower on the field.I’m not a believer in the undefeated Panthers, who have won its four games against Power Four competition by a combined 17 points, but I’m most confident in the over. It’s worth noting that Syracuse leading pass catcher Trebor Pena is trending towards sitting out this one, a big blow to the Kyle McCord-led passing game, but I still believe this sets up for a big game from Oronde Gasdsen.The future NFL tight end has had little issue getting over 69.5 receiving yards this season. He has four games of 74 or more receiving yards and has at least seven targets in all but one game. Boise State vs. UNLV Betting NotesOne of the biggest games of the season goes down on Friday night with two College Football Playoff teams meeting in Las Vegas. While the Broncos' defensive line appears potent, recording the most sacks in the country, the rest of the defense is incredibly poor. The team is 96th in EPA/Play this season despite the ability to put pressure in the backfield, which means the unit is incredibly vulnerable to big plays. The unit will be going up against a formidable and unique offense in UNLV that may be sacked but is incredibly dangerous with the likes of Ricky White breaking out since the team turned over to Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback.In four games since the quarterback change, White has 36 catches with 488 receiving yards while also blocking three punts as a special teams ace for this team. Boise State has been vulnerable against the pass all season, 99th in EPA/Pass and 120th in explosive pass rate. White could have a big night on Friday. Overall, UNLV’s go-go offense has been incredible at ripping off explosives, top 20 in EPA/Play, which will make them a tough out both through the air and on the ground against the Broncos defense. Since going to Williams, UNLV has been at its best, averaging more than 46 points per game. It’s actually the other side of the ball that I think is the most important. UNLV is the first defense that is inside the top 50 yards per carry allowed that Boise State will face on the year. If Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty isn’t able to average nearly 10 yards per carry, this will be a foreign environment for the Broncos.If the game falls on Maddux Madsen, I’m not that confident. Madsen has three big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays while not showing an ability to push the ball down the field. Boise State’s quarterback is completing about 50% of his passes that are more than 10 yards down the field, per Pro Football Focus. There will be points on both sides, but I disagree with the sentiment that Boise State is the clearly better team.Nebraska vs. Ohio State Betting NotesTough look for Nebraska last week to go into Bloomington and get boat raced like it did against the Hoosiers, 56-7. It won’t get any easier for the Cornhuskers against Ohio State, who bolster among the best defenses in the country. I’m not sure how Nebraska strings together drives with its inability to create big plays either on the ground or through the air. The Nebraska offense is outside the top 100 in explosive pass and rush rate, and Jim Knowles's defensive scheme can make life difficult for freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola.The Buckeyes’ are an aggressive defense that ranks third in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus. Raiola has struggled when under duress this season. He is completing less than 47% of his passes when under pressure with one big-time throw to three turnover-worthy plays on 33%of his dropbacks. Further, when he is blitzed, he is a mess. He is completing 58% of his passes but has double his turnover-worthy plays from his big-time throws. I expect Ohio State to get on track and outclass Nebraska, but so does the betting market. I think fading the Nebraska offense is the most prudent play, the Buckeyes have allowed more than seven points to Oregon (32) and Marshall (14). The Cornhuskers team total is 11.5.Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting NotesThis will be the second offense that Navy has faced inside the top 100 in EPA/Play on offense this season. The other one was Memphis, who scored 44 points in an upset loss a few weeks back. The difference between Memphis and Notre Dame is defense, and its why I see Navy suffering its first loss of the season on Saturday at MetLife Stadium.The Midshipmen have revamped its offense under Drew Cronic to become more explosive, but with six weeks worth of game film, I do believe the sophisticated Notre Dame defense that is allowing about a point per drive (third in the nation) can keep a lid on it. Meanwhile, the Navy defense has quietly regressed and will struggle to keep up with the pure talent Notre Dame has to offer. The Midshipmen defense may rank top 25 in EPA/Play, but a lot of that is derived from forcing 14 turnovers. The team is below the national average in yards per carry allowed and success rate. If the Fighting Irish can get ahead, I expect them to keep the throttle down in hopes of notching some style points in beating an undefeated team on a neutral field in late October. OR if Navy is able to stay in the game, I believe its via its offense, which will cause Notre Dame to keep pressing. With that in mind, my favorite bet in this one is the Notre Dame team total over 32.5.Washington vs. Indiana Betting NotesThe Kurtis Rourke injury adds even more intrigue to this game, but the betting market remains firm on Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers, installing the home favorite as six-and-a-half point favorites against Washington, who is off a BYE week.The team will start a holdover from the prior regime, Tayven Jackson, who looked capable in mop-up duty last week against Nebraska but is no doubt a downgrade from Rourke. The question is, how much? The Washington secondary has compiled the best EPA/Pass mark in the country but has benefited from facing a group of lackluster passing attacks. If the Huskies are able to shutdown whatever remains from the IU passing attack, can the team heat up Jackson and what’s been a stout Indiana rushing attack? Indiana is yet to trail in a game this season, I’m curious to see how the team would respond if it fell behind with its backup quarterback on the field.This will be the best offense that the Hoosiers have faced to date with Will Rogers operating a highly efficient and balanced offense. The Huskies are top 20 in EPA/Play and are averaging nearly five yards per carry. The one clear edge in this game with questions on the IU offense is the special teams gap. Washington has regressed heavily in this department, ranking 133rd out of 134 in Billy Connely’s SP+ special teams rating. Indiana ranks 14th in the same metric. Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Betting NotesOklahoma is going to go back to Week 1 starter Jackson Arnold in the wake of firing offensive coordinator Seth Littrell. It’s not looking good for the Sooners across the board as the team has scored a combined 54 points in four SEC games this season. It won’t get any easier as the team heads to face a refreshed Ole Miss team that will look to jumpstart a second-half push to the College Football Playoff. The team desperately needed its BYE week with injuries mounting, and keeping an eye on the status of star wide receiver Tre Harris, who didn’t finish the game at LSU, and Princely Umanmielen, who has been out for about a month, are key ones to watch. Ole Miss’ pass rush that ranks top five in the country according to Pro Football Focus should feast in this one, but can Jaxson Dart and the offense get back on track? I mentioned the injuries to Harris and along the offensive line, but Ole Miss hasn’t scored more than 26 points in conference play. Illinois vs. Oregon Betting NotesIllinois continues a resurgent season, but this sets up to be a poor matchup in Eugene against the No. 1 team in the country. The point spread looks lofty but may be short in reality. The Fighting Illini covered a 19.5-point spread back on September 28th at Penn State, but is there only a slight difference between the two College Football Playoff contenders, when noting upgrades for both the Ducks and Illini? While winning at home 21-7 last week against an identity-less Michigan team, the Fighting Illini were bet against in the market at a rapid rate, closing as six-point underdogs. The big edge in this one is Jordan James for Oregon. The star running back was put on ice early in the Ducks’ blowout win against Purdue, but will get a plus matchup against Illinois rush defense that is outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush. BYU vs. UCF Betting NotesPretty tricky travel spot for BYU, who makes its longest trip of the season to UCF on what will be a 3:30 PM EST kick. Further, BYU may be the worst undefeated team in the country, narrowly escaping a patchwork Oklahoma State team in the final seconds. There are edges for both sides in this one that make me confident in the over at 55.5. First, for UCF, the move to Jacurri Brown has reinvigorated this offense, scoring 35 points at Iowa State behind a dominant rushing effort from the likes of RJ Harvey. Oddsmakers are bullish on the Knights in Week 9, moving the team to favorite status ahead of this matchup, and it’s fair to see why. Oklahoma State had a 99th percentile EPA/Rush mark in Week 8 when compared to 2023 games, per GameonPaper, and the Cougars rush defense is 94th in EPA/Rush.Meanwhile, quarterback Jake Retzlaff has shown a big arm behind BYU’s sturdy offensive line, allowing only six sacks on the season. The Cougars are top 25 in explosive pass rate and can test this UCF secondary that has 81st in EPA/Pass and has allowed 35 or more in three of the last five games. Missouri vs. Alabama Betting NotesAlabama’s slide continues, but the group is expected to get a bit of a reprieve in Week 9 when a banged up Missouri team comes to Bryant-Denny Stadium. Brady Cook has a high ankle sprain that sent him to the hospital for an MRI during last week’s game before he returned to engineer a comeback win. We’ll see how the ankle holds up this week, but the expectation is that he will be hobbled at the very least. Meanwhile, the Tigers will be without its top running back Nate Noel this week, another blow to the team’s offense. Can this be the game for the Crimson Tide to get on track? Jalen Milroe has struggled in two straight games against two elite defensive lines, but where does Missouri fall into the mix? Over the last two games, Milroe has completed 60% of his passes with 32 rushes for 47 yards. The Tigers have some gaudy defensive numbers but also have played the easiest schedule in the SEC. The team is 11th in pass rush grade and 27th in EPA/Play but allowed 40-plus at Texas A&M a few weeks ago in its first real test of the season. This game may figure to be more of a slog with Missouri trying to play keep away against an Alabama team that may be going off the rails. Texas vs. Vanderbilt Betting NotesVanderbilt continues to be a cashcow as an underdog, so why tinker with what’s been working? The Commodores have established a winning (or at least competitive) brand of football by staying on schedule avoiding mistakes and keeping the trains moving on third down. The ‘Dores are 32nd in success rate while converting 52% of its third downs, top 10 in the country. With a methodical pace on offense, the group is able to shorten the games and outperform oddsmakers' expectations. While Texas has a significant talent advantage, and many will side with the Longhorns after a loss at Georgia in the “get right spot,” the home underdog has the ability to keep the opposition in front of them and slow down explosive plays. With bigger fish to fry in SEC play, is it in Texas’ best interest to run up the score on a big underdog? The Longhorns haven’t covered against either offense its played that is top 70 in EPA/Play, which Vanderbilt fits inside of (Mississippi State, Georgia). Florida State vs. Miami (Florida) Betting NotesFlorida State lost to Duke last week despite out-gaining the Blue Devils 291-180. The team simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with a team like Miami, who may have trouble winning a game by three possessions but should be able to get Cam Ward his Heisman-qualifying stat line. In an in-state rivalry game that Florida State rallied to win last season, I’m sure head coach Mario Cristobal would love to get one back on Mike Norvell. For FSU to keep up, it’ll need to hit explosive plays, but Brock Glenn doesn’t look capable of moving the ball down the field. Meanwhile, Cam Ward and this Miami offense can likely generate big plays downfield early and often to safely get the job done and avoid any late-game heroics like has been needed at times this season. Penn State vs. Wisconsin Betting NotesWisconsin hasn’t been able to slow down the elite offenses on its schedule to date, allowing 38 to USC and 42 to Alabama this season. While it’s impressive that the team has gotten its season on track despite losing its starting quarterback in Van Dyke, this is a step up in class for the Badgers that may result in a humbling result. Surprisingly to some, the Badgers have especially struggled against the run where a normally stout defensive line is only 103rd in line yards. The Nittany Lions should be able to feast on the ground with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. However, can new starting quarterback Braedyn Locke’s big arm create some explosives for the Badgers? The quarterback is completing nearly 57% of his passes further than 10 yards downfield and the Badgers are playing at an above-average tempo this season. I do have a lean towards the over, but I’m definitely nervous that this game can resemble the Illinois game from a few weeks ago, where Penn State won 21-7 in a game that featured a ton of yards, but not a ton of scoring. LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting NotesI think this is a great opportunity to sell LSU at its highest. While the Tigers are winners of six straight games, including two in a row out of its BYE week, let’s take a deeper dive at those games. The Bayou Bengals beat a banged-up Ole Miss team in overtime that was playing its seventh straight game and an Arkansas team that was far from full strength on the road. Now, the team gets a healthy Texas A&M team that will be its toughest test of the season on both the offensive and defensive line. Texas A&M is more vulnerable in the secondary, bottom half of the country in coverage grading per Pro Football Focus, but with LSU’s lack of a ground game, the Aggies may be able to drop more defenders into coverage to slow down this LSU passing attack. LSU is passing at a top 10 rate, which makes the team easier to figure out and tips the scales toward head coach Mike Elko in terms of conceiving a game plan to slow down LSU. Meanwhile, the Tigers' defense has improved but is still 84th in EPA/Play. I believe the team’s inability to get off the field on third down, 110th in third down success rate, will play a big role in determining this game. For what it’s worth, Texas A&M is tied for the 19th-best third-down success rate and can create more scoring chances. Conner Weigman is off a shaky outing against Mississippi State, but I believe we are getting the better team that has more avenues to winning at home at a cheap price. Texas A&M has the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball while LSU is over-reliant on an elite quarterback, but a unit that is a one tricky pony. I played Texas A&M ML on Wednesday. Kansas vs. Kansas State Betting NotesI’m still suspect that this Kansas State secondary is worth anything, but I can’t trust Jalon Daniels to avoid turnovers on the road. The KU quarterback has 10 big-time throws to 11 turnover-worthy plays this season and will need to avoid those mistakes against a Kansas State team that can move the ball at will in this one. Kansas’ defense is particularly weak against the run, 112th in EPA/Rush on the season and 123rd in defensive line yards.Look for D.J. Giddens to get back over the 100-yard mark in this matchup. SMU vs. Duke Betting NotesDespite an easy schedule, Duke ranks only 58th in net EPA/Pay and 72nd in net success rate. The defense has benefitted from a slew of limited offenses and some fortunate bounces to tip the scales in its favor. Meanwhile, SMU’s loss to BYU is aging quite nicely and since the team has handed the keys to new quarterback Kevin Jennings, the group has scored at least 34 points in each game with wins over the likes of Louisville on the road and TCU. SMU’s strength is on the defensive line, top 10 in line yards and third in yards per carry allowed, which is going to put a ton of pressure on Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy to move the ball through the air. Murphy hasn’t shown an ability to do that with regularity as the Blue Devils passing game ranks 84th in EPA/Pass. Look for SMU to continue its undefeated start in ACC play. More College Football Stories
